The Futures Pattern, Price & Time Report - Currency Futures
If reports today show that the economy is recovering then look for another wave of selling pressure.
The June Euro is called lower this morning. Traders are booking profits after yesterday’s spectacular gains. A strong stock market today will support the Euro because trader appetite for risk will likely increase. If there is no follow-through rally today then traders may pressure the Euro late in the session on the thought that the European Central Bank is going to have to take more aggressive action to revive the Euro Zone economy.
June British Pounds are trading higher overnight. The fundamentals support a weaker Pound, but a strong equity market today is likely to trigger a short-covering rally as traders will demand more risky assets. Fundamentally, the quantitative easing campaign enacted this week should be bearish as it effectively floods the market with cash and weakens the currency.
The June Japanese Yen is called lower on the opening based on weaker overnight trade. There will be no interest in the long side of the Yen until the Japanese economy turns around. This is not likely to occur until the economies of its two biggest customers: the U.S. and Europe begin to show economic improvement.
The June Swiss Franc is likely to open flat after yesterday’s massive sell-off. On Thursday the Swiss National Bank simultaneously lowered its benchmark interest rate and intervened. These actions triggered a huge sell-off in the Swiss Franc market. Traders do not know what to expect today because it is not known whether the break hit the SNB’s target price. If it missed the mark then look for another round of intervention today. Even if they do not intervene then look for the SNB to start a round of quantitative easing. There are stories already circulating that they will buying government debt. The moves by the SNB were designed to weaken the currency in order to trigger demand of Swiss products which would stimulate the economy.
Stronger equity and commodity markets helped the June Canadian Dollar gain on Thursday. The bullish action helped take the bearish Canadian economy off of the minds of investors. Today this market may find downside pressure if the unemployment number is greater than pre-report estimates of 100,000 jobs lost. Otherwise, look for the stock market to dictate the Canadian Dollar’s direction.






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